Presented by Goldman Sachs
By SAM BLEWETT
with BETHANY DAWSON
PRESENTED BY
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DERAILED: Transport Secretary Louise Haigh resigned in the last hour, after a Sky News scoop forced her to publicly admit a historic criminal conviction of fraud by false representation. Haigh told Keir Starmer she did not want to be a “distraction” after Rob Powell and Alexandra Rogers dropped their story, centering on slightly confusing events relating to a work phone and a mugging on a night out back in 2013. Long-serving frontbencher Haigh — who was seen by many as one of the few remaining standard-bearers of the “soft left” — is the first Cabinet casualty of the new government. All eyes today will be on whom Starmer appoints as her replacement. More details below.
Good Friday morning. This is Sam Blewett.
DRIVING THE DAY
TO BE, OR NOT TO BE: MPs will today make one of the most momentous decisions of their careers when they vote on whether to legalize assisted dying. Expect harrowing personal stories, forceful arguments and complex moral quandaries to be aired during five hours of debate as both sides try to persuade wavering colleagues who still don’t know which lobby to walk through in this free vote. This isn’t tinkering with tax rules. This is literally a matter of life and death. No pressure then!
But what is the question? Kim Leadbeater’s finely honed private members’ bill would give terminally ill adults in England and Wales the right to medically end their lives with the assistance of a doctor. They must be expected to live for less than six months and have the approval of two independent doctors and a High Court judge.
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The mind boggles: Those in favor of the change say it would be highly safeguarded, enhance dignity and combat suffering —and that it’s a social reform that the public widely supports. However, opponents fear a slippery slope that could lead to coercion of the vulnerable in the face of an NHS that needs to improve on palliative care. We should know by 2.30 p.m. how the Commons has weighed up this matter of conscience.
How today should go down: Speaker Lindsay Hoyle will make the first play at 9 a.m. when he decides at his morning conference whether to select the “wrecking amendment” tabled by a few MPs. Most expect he won’t, but his decision should be announced at the beginning of the debate at 9.30 a.m.
Opening the debate: Leadbeater, who’s been pushing this bill for two months after coming first in the private members’ ballot, will kick off the debate. Urgent questions and statements are thought unlikely in a chamber so pushed for time. The Labour backbencher is expecting to speak for up to 25 minutes to make her case.
Tick tock: Playbook hears a whopping 170 MPs have registered their interest to speak — and there’s no chance of them all being satisfied unless each delivers a sub-two-minute rap. Hoyle wants to keep the debate balanced between both sides of the argument, so anyone who’s indicated their preference has a better chance of being picked. But whoever’s in the speaker’s chair could have a job on their hands keeping order.
That noise outside? Rival protesters will gather in Westminster throughout the morning. Terminally ill people are expected to turn out for the pro camp and disability rights activists Liz Carr and Tanni Grey-Thompson are expected to join the counter-protest.
A last look at the polling: Nearly three-quarters of Britons back the principle of assisted dying, according to YouGov polling. On this particular legislation, BMG Research polling for the i suggests 54 percent back it, with 16 percent opposed — which means our politicians are a bit out of whack with the public. A quick look at the two camps …
THE SUPPORTERS: Solicitor General Sarah Sackman and fellow Cabinet Ministers Liz Kendall, Ed Miliband, Peter Kyle, Lisa Nandy, Hilary Benn and Alan Campbell … former PM David Cameron … ex-DPPs Max Hill, Alison Saunders and Ken Macdonald … former Labour leader Neil Kinnock … Labour peer Charlie Falconer … former Archbishop of Canterbury George Carey … broadcaster Esther Rantzen … Shadow Housing Secretary Kevin Hollinrake.
AND THE OPPONENTS: Cabinet Ministers Wes Streeting, Shabana Mahmood, Jonathan Reynolds, Bridget Phillipson … ex-PMs Gordon Brown Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss … Liberty … departing Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby and other religious leaders … the unlikely alliance of Mother and Father of the House Diane Abbott and Edward Leigh … Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch and Shadow Attorney General David Wolfson.
Back in the chamber: None of Keir Starmer’s split Cabinet are expected to speak in the debate — and the prime minister himself won’t be attending until the vote. He’s rigidly stuck to the stance of neutrality he imposed on the Cabinet for the free vote, even as some of his colleagues waged war on the legislation. Every sign points to the PM voting in favor, however. He’s a long-term advocate who only on Thursday said he has a “huge amount of interest and experience in this.” So what could that mean?
To the time machine: The last time the Commons voted on assisted dying was in 2015, when the pro-camp lost by 212 votes (with 330 against to 118 in favor). Starmer was one of the most prominent advocates in the debate. Just three months into the job, with much less gray hair, he cited having changed legal guidance to make it less likely that people motivated by compassion would face prosecution if they helped dying relatives end their lives abroad.
Plug in the VHS: Starmer was even more lawyerly in his demeanor back then as he batted away numerous calls to give way to set out his legalistic argument. Since he probably won’t take the same approach nearly a decade later, watch a fledgling MP for Holborn and St Pancras make his first big intervention here.
Reading the runes: Both camps are hopeful but don’t really know how this will pan out. Supporters believe if all those who’ve said they’ll vote aye actually do, it will pass, but even one of their most prominent figures conceded that “it’s on a knife edge.” ITV’s tracker has 205 MPs voting for and 159 against — but the 125 undecided could swing it either way. By 2.30 p.m. we should know definitively.
Will there be any shenanigans? The threat of opponents filibustering it into the long grass is slim. Though the vote must take place before the 2.30 p.m. cut-off point, a closure motion should be called before then. The ayes must win for it to go to a vote, and there has to be a minimum of 100 MPs in the supporting lobby. Anyone fearing a Christopher Chope-style blocking need not worry — clerks say this old trick doesn’t apply to the first bill of the day.
If it’s voted down … then that’s probably it for assisted dying for another decade, Leadbeater said in an interview with the Guardian’s Jessica Elgot, although there’s always the Isle of Man or Jersey which could introduce it sooner.
If the ayes have it … then it’s really just the beginning of a long process of scrutiny. There’ll be the committee stage before a third reading in spring, when MPs may well change their minds. If they don’t, it’s then over to the Lords.
It would by no means be a first … not when it comes to law changes on huge social issues being made by votes of conscience. My colleague Sascha O’Sullivan has a great new episode of Westminster Insider looking at how the free votes on abortion, gay marriage and fox hunting played out before. Tune in here.
Some light in the darkness: It’ll be a difficult day that’ll weigh heavily on all involved — but there’s a bit of light to come. This evening a 40-foot spruce arrives on the estate from Northumberland’s Kielder Forest ahead of the annual switching on of the Christmas lights on Monday. Rejoice!
THE CABINET MINISTER AND THE CRIMINAL CONVICTION
HAIGH HAIGH, MY MY: Louise Haigh sent in her letter of resignation to Prime Minister Keir Starmer overnight, saying reports about her historic criminal conviction “will inevitably be a distraction from delivering on the work of this government and the policies to which we are both committed.” Haigh said she was “sorry to leave under these circumstances, but I take pride in what we have done.”
Starmer’s response: In his letter acknowledging her resignation as transport secretary, Keir Starmer thanked Haigh for her time in government, adding: “I know you still have a huge contribution to make in the future.” A replacement could be announced as soon as today.
More phone issues: Playbook hears Haigh was on a train back from an announcement in Leeds with patchy phone signal last night while firefighting the fallout. At that point her allies said she believed she’d be staying in the post, having “fully disclosed” the “traumatic” incident to Starmer before he appointed her to the shadow Cabinet in 2020.
But the writing was on the wall: Last night Playbook’s messages to otherwise communicative Downing Street advisers asking whether the PM retained confidence in his transport secretary were stonewalled.
The details: Haigh was in her mid-20s and working as a public policy manager at Aviva when she told police she’d had her belongings stolen, including her work mobile. She was given a new device. In her public statement released last night, Haigh said she “triggered police attention” when she discovered the original phone (in a drawer at home, according to an ally) and turned it on. “I should have immediately informed my employer and not doing so straight away was a mistake,” Haigh said in her resignation letter. Last night, Haigh said her solicitor had advised her not to comment during an interview “and I regret following that advice.” She pleaded guilty at Camberwell Green Magistrates Court and was given the “lowest possible outcome,” a discharge.
Who’s put this out there? Sky’s scoop was followed half an hour later by a comprehensively reported Times “exclusive” on the conviction. Haigh had already been rebuked by the PM for the debacle over P&O ferries. Guido had a lot of fun dragging up all the times the left-winger called for Conservatives to resign and the Mail splashes hard on the story.
THE OTHER JOB TO WATCH: Unless there’s been a hitch, Starmer should reveal his new pick for Cabinet secretary very soon. Whitehall insiders reckon the interviews wrapped up this week even if the “final decision” hadn’t been taken by last night. Of course, the PM can sign off on the appointment whenever he wants, so until then all eyes will be on which of the four candidates — Olly Robbins, Antonia Romeo, Tamara Finkelstein or Chris Wormald — emerges victorious.
MEANWHILE, IN IRELAND
EMERALD ELECTION: After an unusually short three-week campaign, it’s election day in Ireland, my colleague Shawn Pogatchnik writes in to say. The first votes are being cast as this newsletter hits your inbox and the 3.7 million-person electorate has until 10 p.m. to mark their ballots, which are almost nothing like ours. (More on that in a minute. It gets complicated.)
Who’s in the running: According to the polls, it’s going to be an almost absurdly tight three-way race between Prime Minister Simon Harris’ Fine Gael, Foreign Minister Micheál Martin’s Fianna Fáil and Mary Lou McDonald’s Sinn Féin. Any of them could end up as taoiseach, aka the “chief,” of Ireland’s next coalition government. And it’ll have to be a coalition, because none of the parties is running enough candidates to achieve a majority on its own.
What’s at stake: The 174-seat Dáil Éireann, the key lower house of Ireland’s parliament that, like the Commons, must elect the prime minister. It’ll be the biggest Dáil in history, with 14 more seats than in 2020, reflecting Ireland’s surging population and a rule that requires at least one TD (equivalent to an MP) for every 30,000 people. If Westminster applied that ratio, we’d have a Commons of 2,300 MPs. This is one reason why Irish citizens are much more likely to be on first-name terms with their local lawmakers.
When will we know the result? Because of the sheer complexity of the system, we won’t see all winners announced until Sunday night at the earliest. It could easily stretch until Monday if there’s a high turnout, disputes or recounts. That’s because the Irish never count their paper ballots once. Most will be subjected to around a dozen rounds of counting by hand, hours at a time. Results from the first count — when the top vote-winners in each of 43 constituencies are declared — will be announced Saturday afternoon. Those are usually the least surprising results and may disproportionately feature Sinn Féin.
Voting for everyone: Under Ireland’s proportional representation system, you don’t just put an X beside one candidate’s name. Voters are encouraged to rate each candidate in order of preference: 1, 2, 3 and so on. Each constituency elects three to five TDs, not just one, and the ballots on average in this election will have 16 candidates — and yes, it’s fine to vote for all 16. Determining the winners of most, if not all, of the 174 seats will require many rounds for each candidate to be elected or eliminated. The system encourages diversity and government by coalition. But it can take a PhD in applied mathematics to keep up as Saturday turns to Sunday.
The oversimplified version: Each constituency has its own “quota” to achieve victory depending on turnout and the number of seats. Example: If 100,000 vote in a four-seat constituency, a candidate will need 20,001 votes exactly to win a seat (the formula is 100,000 ÷ 5 + 1). If anyone tops that quota, their “excess” votes are transferred to the second choices marked on those ballots. Then, round after round, the least popular candidates at the bottom of the table keep getting eliminated. These losers have their votes “transferred” to others still in contention.
Got it? If not, that’s OK. We’ve already cut through the complexity with a big read today. It spells out why Martin, leader of the Soldiers of Destiny (that’s what Fianna Fáil means), has the edge to become the next taoiseach. When will we know for sure? Weeks of negotiations involving perhaps a half-dozen parties and independents beckon. Single-past-the-post it ain’t.
TODAY IN WESTMINSTER
RACHEL REEVES BEWARE: The Bank of England is releasing the first financial stability report of this Labour government at 10.30 a.m., with bank boss Andrew Bailey at the 11 a.m. press conference (stream here).
Economics ≈ star signs: The FT’s Jim Pickard and the Guardian’s Kieran Stacey both report that the chancellor’s multi-year spending review is coming in June. Playbook hears they’re on the money, though officials insist it hasn’t been delayed. The Treasury always said it would come in the spring — but they must’ve been going by the stars rather than the weather.
BIG GOAL, BIG MONEY: Keir Starmer announced funding to help end all new transmissions of HIV within England by 2030. Speaking at a No. 10 event to mark World AIDS Day —the first such event since Gordon Brown was in charge — the PM said £27 million would go toward expanding opt-out blood testing in A&Es and £37 million for the global HIV/AIDS response.PA has a write-up.
FOR THE LADS: Health Secretary Wes Streeting launched plans for a health strategy to address the “biggest issues affecting men,” including prostate cancer, heart disease and mental health. Health Secretary Wes Streeting announced the plan at a men’s health summit on Thursday hosted by Starmer’s beloved Arsenal, the Premier League and Movember.
LEGAL LOOT: The government plans to invest £20 million into the legal aid sector every year (subject to consultation) so people in “unfair” housing battles and at risk of losing their homes get access to advice. The funds will also be directed to lawyers advising victims of modern slavery and trafficking, and domestic abuse, according to the Ministry of Justice.
IF YOU WANT MY ADVICE … Former PM Boris Johnson told the Telegraph’s “Ukraine: The Latest” podcast that British peacekeepers should help defend Ukraine’s border as part of any possible cease-fire deal with Russia.
REPORTS OUT TODAY: A National Energy System Operator report — which Energy Secretary Ed Miliband used to prop up his plan to decarbonize the grid by 2030 —was built around a series of assumptions designed to support Miliband’s plans, says the Centre for Policy Studies … Fixing chronic loneliness could reduce 1 million GP appointments and 100,000 hospital admissions per year, according to Pro Bono Economics …
And breathe: Two-thirds of councils have not increased spending on youth services in the past five years, says the Local Government Association … the price of public rapid EV charging has remained “virtually unchanged since the start of the year” despite falling energy costs, according to analysis from RAC.
HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 9.30 a.m. to debate the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill (led by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater) … and if MPs finish assisted dying early (they won’t) they could end up debating ferrets in the second reading of the Animal Welfare (Import of Dogs, Cats and Ferrets) Bill (led by Lib Dem MP Danny Chambers).
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BEYOND THE M25
WHAT’S CHRISTMAS WITHOUT CHAOS: France is barreling toward a perfect storm of political and financial crisis with Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally threatening to pull the plug on the fragile coalition government led by Prime Minister Michel Barnier over his budget. What is happening now and what might happen next is complicated, but my European colleagues have an explainer to help you out.
STEP AWAY FROM THE BUTTON: Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened to strike Kyiv with Moscow’s new ballistic missile, Oreshnik, which he says cannot be shot down by any air defense system. The Guardian reports the leader said the missile was “comparable in strength to a nuclear strike.”
TIKTOK TROUBLE: Social media platform TikTok faces an intense regulatory storm over whether it was used to skew the Romanian presidential election. Media regulators and election observers are investigating how Călin Georgescu — an unknown, far-right, NATO-skeptic Putin admirer — suddenly went from obscurity to winning the election’s first round. POLITICO has the details here.
GEORGIA WOES: Riot police deployed tear gas and water cannons to disperse thousands of demonstrators gathered in Tbilisi to protest the Georgian government’s U-turn on its bid to join the EU. My colleagues have the story.
SYRIA VIOLENCE: Rebel forces from the Islamist militant group Tahrir al-Sham seized several towns and villages in Aleppo and Idlib. The BBC has the story, and reports more than 180 combatants and at least 19 civilians had been killed in the fighting.
**A message from Goldman Sachs: 2025 starts now with the sharpest forecasts on next year’s global economy from Goldman Sachs. Explore a comprehensive range of viewpoints — from the specialists on the trading floor to the independent research desks — on the year ahead. 1. Listen to leaders, investors, and analysts from across the firm as they break down the key issues shaping next year’s economy in our award-winning weekly podcast, Goldman Sachs Exchanges. 2. Every Friday, hear timely market updates on the most important trends of the week from across the trading floor, all under ten minutes in The Markets. 3. Analysis. Outlooks. Intelligence. Subscribe to Briefings, our flagship newsletter delivering the latest insights on markets, industry, and finance. Stay ahead with insights from the 2025 Goldman Sachs Outlooks.**
MEDIA ROUND
No government or opposition round, prepping for a big debate day.
Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Former U.K. Independent Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration John Vine (7.15 a.m.) … former SpAd to Rishi Sunak Rajiv Shah (9.10 a.m.) … Conservative MP Suella Braverman (9.20 a.m.).
Also on Sky News Breakfast: Bishop of London Sarah Mullally (7.15 a.m.) … broadcaster and campaigner Esther Rantzen (8.15 a.m.) … Labour peer Robert Winston (9.15 a.m.).
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES
POLITICO UK: Will booming Ireland boot out TikTok PM Simon Harris?
Daily Express: Please allow us ‘dignity of choice in our lives.’
Daily Mail: Revealed: Cabinet minister has fraud conviction.
Daily Mirror: Bad taste.
Daily Star: ‘You’re a tubby bald bully.. karma got ya!’
Financial Times: Talk to Trump and buy American, Lagarde counsels European leaders.
i: UK public backs assisted dying — as MPs vote on landmark bill.
Metro: Masterchef TV Gregg accused over sick sex jokes.
The Daily Telegraph: BBC in fresh sex scandal.
The Guardian: MP behind assisted dying bill makes final appeal before vote.
The Independent: PM blames Brexit and Tory ‘opens borders’ as net migration nears 1m.
The Sun: Sir Rod: You humiliated my wife you tubby, bald bully.
The Times: Tighter rules after ‘shock’ increase in immigration.
TODAY’S NEWS MAGS
The Economist: “My contempt for the state is infinite.”
THANK POD IT’S FRIDAY
Westminster Insider: Host Sascha O’Sullivan looks back at previous votes to find out what happens when MPs don’t have the party whip guiding them, with top guests including former Equalities Minister Lynne Featherstone, former Commons Speaker John Bercow, ex-Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries and former Defence Secretary Grant Shapps.
Power Play: Host Anne McElvoy talks to Democratic Representative Ro Khanna, who represents a large swath of Silicon Valley, about Elon Musk and rebuilding the Democratic party.
EU Confidential: EU Confidential host Sarah Wheaton speaks with former NATO spokesperson Oana Lungescu to unpack what Călin Georgescu’s first-round Romanian presidential election victory means for European security.
Plus six of the other best political podcasts to listen to this weekend:
Chopper’s Political Podcast: Talks the assisted dying vote with Labour MP Jake Richards, who supports the bill, and Tory MP Bernard Jenkin, who is undecided.
The Rundown: Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry, ex-Defence Secretary Grant Shapps and former Defence Committee Chair Tobias Ellwood join host Alain Tolhurst to discuss the government’s challenges in an increasingly dangerous world.
Newscast: Lib Dem Leader Ed Davey joins host Adam Fleming to talk about his mission to get the Christmas No. 1 with his charity single “Love is Enough.”
The Political Party: Host Matt Forde is joined by former Conservative MP David Duguid about having a spinal stroke, being dropped as a general election candidate and moving forward.
Pod Save the UK: A&E doctor and Labour MP Rosena Allin-Khan talks about the assisted dying vote with hosts Coco Khan and Nish Kumar.
The Today Podcast: Broadcaster and campaigner Esther Rantzen and Labour MPs Preet Kaur Gill and Warinder Juss talk to hosts Nick Robinson and Amol Rajan about assisted dying.
LONDON CALLING
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Clear skies and sunshine. High 9C, low 6C.
BIG CCHQ JOB NEWS: Alex Wild will be out as the Conservatives’ director of communications at the end of the year as Kemi Badenoch looks to put her stamp on the party. “After four leaders and 10 chairmen it’s time to move on,” Wild said.
NEW (SECOND) GIG: The Henry Jackson Society’s Thomas Munson has joined the Tory Reform Group’s advisory board.
JOB AD: The Green Party is hiring a press manager … Neil Shastri-Hurst is looking for an unpaid intern (six months).
OPPOSITE OF NOMINATIVE DETERMINISM: Election supremo Isaac Levido, who ran the 2019 and 2014 Tory campaigns for Brexiteers Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, has reportedly called his new baby girl Eunice. Which PopBitch points out is EU Nice.
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.
WRITING PLAYBOOK MONDAY MORNING: Stefan Boscia.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: Tory peer and former Leader of the House of Lords Natalie Evans … Leicester South MP Shockat Adam … former Makerfield MP Yvonne Fovargue … former DfE Permanent Secretary Jonathan Slater … former NHS England Chairman Malcolm Grant … former Westminster Council leader Shirley Porter … former IPSO Chairman Alan Moses … Scottish Tory MSP Alexander Stewart … the Antisemitism Policy Trust’s Danny Stone.
And celebrating over the weekend: Security Minister Dan Jarvis … Gloucester MP Alex McIntyre … former Selby and Ainsty MP Nigel Adams … Tory peer Hugo Swire … Tory peer Patrick McLoughlin … Tory peer Charles Cathcart … former Schools Minister David Laws … former national security adviser Stephen Lovegrove … Sun on Sunday Political Editor Kate Ferguson … former DCMS SpAd Meg Powell-Chandler … senior communication officer in the Lord Speaker’s office Lucy Dargahi … politics.co.uk Editor Josh Self … Labour peer Hilary Armstrong … Lib Dem peer Graham Tope … Labour peer David Evans … Lib Dem peer Phil Willis … the New Statesman’s Anoosh Chakelian … and former UKIP Leader Paul Nuttall … former Deputy Mayor of London Richard Barnes … Deputy Mayor of London for Transport Seb Dance … Scottish Tory MSP Oliver Mundell … Süddeutsche Zeitung Dossier’s Neelam Cartmell … MailOnline’s David Wilcock … City University of London professor and former Andrew Marr Show Editor Barney Jones.
PLAYBOOKCOULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT:My editors Zoya Sheftalovich, Jack Blanchard and Alex Spence, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producerDean Southwell.
This newsletter has been updated to correct an inaccurate description of Isaac Levido’s former role.
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